Friday, June 8, 2012

Honor roll student jailed for truancy


A little over a week ago I came across an article about a girl that was thrown in jail for a day because of her numerous absences in High School, also known as "truancy". Here are the highlights:
  • Diane Tran, 17, thrown in jail for one night because of repeated absences from school
  • Honors student has been working two jobs to keep family afloat since parents' divorce
  • Has been taking advanced placement and college courses in addition to jobs and missed school due to exhaustion
  • Spent the night in jail for truancy
School is a service. Money (Via taxes, tuition, fees, etc.) is given to institutions to serve our kids. The school is providing a service to the children that attend. Imagine how screwed we would be if Apple could throw us in jail if we didn't visit iTunes regularly enough. The law/rule/regulation of truancy should not exist. If kids do not want to take 4 years of high school they should not be compelled to.

For the sake of argument let's follow the reasoning that says schools should be allowed to compel children to consume their services.

The judge makes a case that he can't allow exceptions. Many people have echoed this saying, "If you don't punish her then you have to make case by case decisions about how the law is applied! This would lead to madness!" We have to remember this is Sparta.

But seriously, it is clear the truancy law was made strictly for lazy students that suck at life. That's the spirit or intent of the truancy law. Clearly this girl doesn't fit that criteria but  was thrown in jail because legislators didn't think of every possibility. Add the fact that courts literally handle infractions case by case and person by person, not in large herds of people who committed the same crime. It's hard to give credibility to the judges remarks. To allow an exception here would not be a violation of the law but its intended enforcement.

We don't need better laws, we need wiser people (I said wiser, not smarter). I notice when people say they want better laws they really mean they want more stipulations. The problem is that it is impossible to think of every possibility before it happens which is why you need administrators of the law to have wisdom to react to what is happening in front of them. Otherwise you have outcomes like this one, where an extremely responsible young lady is jailed for being irresponsible.
Planning for every exception hardly ever works, here's an entertaining video making my case. Skip to 2:00 and listen until 3:41.
Afterburner with Bill Whittle: The Train Set

Let's not outsmart our common sense.



Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Federal Deficit Numbers by POTUS from 2001-2012



I recently read an article that stated federal spending was lower under Obama's presidency when compared to Bush's. I found that odd so I did some digging.

The author is talking about the rate of the economy with reference to GDP. That's a way to get a picture of the debt issue. The problem is that the president doesn't have as much control over GDP as he does over spending. I prefer looking at spending in terms of real purchasing power. In other words looking at deficit spending by looking at the total debt accumulated by year adjusted for inflation. This more accurately shows the spending habits of the federal government.

So that's what I did. I used as unbiased numbers as I could. Inflation rates I found from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. I used total debt numbers from Treasury Direct. This data unfortunately doesn't have FY 2011 or current FY 2012. So I used an ABC article for FY 2011 and using CBO projections (From January which have since been revised and probably will be revised again), for FY 2012.

That said here is what I found. (Add 2000 years to the x-axis for actual years)
Then I ran the numbers for the average deficit per year. I used 4 years for Obama since I included the projections for FY 2012 and 8 years for Bush. Again all these numbers are adjusted for today's dollars. 
Obama has spent an average of 2.48 times the rate of Bush each year. Including inflation, or current day purchasing power Obama has already outspent Bush. To be clear accounting for inflation actually makes this look better for Obama. If you look at the raw numbers Obama outspends Bush 2.78 to 1. 


So when the author of the above article claims that spending 248% more on average than the baseline is a reduction in spending I can't help but think that context is being twisted to paint a rosy picture.

Saturday, June 5, 2010

Economy 101

This post is in response to Russel D Moore's June 1st, 2010 post on the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico which can be found here:

http://www.russellmoore.com/2010/06/01/ecological-catastrophe-and-the-uneasy-evangelical-conscience/


This article attempts to persuade us to trust the government more than we do now. I don’t mean government in general, I mean this administration and session of congress specifically encouraging regulation. This article would be more agreeable if it didn’t rely on the premise of Moore trying to bring the economy and the regulation of it to light as if regulation was something that we as Christians forgot about. Moore has a very simplistic view of the economy and, frankly, he portrays an economy that isn’t in line with reality.

Moore views the economy as a child that needs to be restrained from doing bad things. As the argument goes, the economy will always do what is bad when given the chance. What is the fix? Tell industries how to do their job regulation by regulation, even more than we already do.

If the economy really was as Moore views it, an unruly teenager bent on doing what feels good regardless of consequences, then I agree with his conclusion that we need to slowly but surely tell this teenager what is and isn’t OK and punish him when he steps outside those lines. Do we know every line? I don’t think Moore presumes that anyone does which implicitly tells us that we need to regulate more as we see more.

My problem is that the economy isn’t how Moore views it. It is not an entity bent on rewarding evil and hurting the rest. The economy is a well oiled machine. The phrase “unintended consequences” doesn’t apply anywhere better than when the government interferes with the economy. The government sees the bad issue and tries to fix that one detail. What’s wrong with that? When you fix one detail you aren’t messing with just that one, but with a numerous succession of others. The government usually fails to anticipate these unintended consequences and regularly refuses to even acknowledge their existence.

Minimum wage is a good example. We need a minimum wage because we need to make sure people are making enough money and not exploited! So let’s raise it to $7.25 an hour. But why stop? Why not $20 or $30, or why not $100 an hour? “Well that’s ridiculous Victor, companies won’t be able to afford $100 an hour!” They won’t? What will they be able to afford? Where is that magic boundary that determines where a business will start losing money and how do we find this boundary? I know, let’s give that seemingly arbitrary decision to 535 men in Washington to decide, half of which have never owned or operated a business, some of whom have never worked for any business but argue vehemently that they know what businesses need to do.

Consequences? Let’s follow up with this example. Some owner in Virginia pays 10 employees $5.00 an hour. Assuming 20 hour weeks, that’s $100 per employee a week or $1000 a week total for the owner. Let’s say he’s in the stage of the business where he’s breaking even in efforts to get his business’s name out there in hopes that it will pick up, otherwise known as the beginning stage. Now let's say the government raises the minimum wage to $7.25 and his funds stay the same. His workers will immediately get an increase in pay but the new law doesn't address the growth of his business. Because of this new law, the owner’s payroll expenses jump to $1450 from $1000. $2.25 isn’t a big deal right? But his payroll just increased almost %50 without improving output or providing more workers. If he’s to continue to break even he has to let people go otherwise he starts losing money. Except when he lets people go he has to make up for the hours lost, in this case 60 or almost a third of the working hours he had at his disposal, so he either works for free and makes up for it himself or he has to close his business because it is now losing money, not making it.

“But Victor, minimum wage is a good thing that helps people climb out of poverty!” Well what about these 6 workers that were let go due to the law? How close are they to getting out of poverty? The dilemma only grows. Because if the owner has 20 workers to choose from that operate under the same wages he will choose the best ones. It becomes harder for people who do not possess any skills to get a job in this company now because even those that are experienced can’t keep a job there. This creates a barrier to entry. Now this law makes it harder to acquire useful skills to those who do not possess any. So it’s a two-fold blow. You lose jobs, in this case 6 optimistically but possibly all 20 if the owner can’t operate his business with the reduced help, and you keep entry-level workers from being able to enter the job market.

All that to say, regulation is not always a good thing. In the same way you need to know how an engine works before you start fixing one, you also need to know how the economy works in order to fix it and not just stop something it does. Example: removing the lubricant from the pistons of a car because it's an environmental hazard and yet that would destroy the car. Often the government moves an important piece and says it will be OK but when the machine stops working properly they blame something else usually unrelated, "well if you had stopped deregulating seat belt laws the lubricant wouldn't have mattered".

That is what is most worrisome about this article, and in my opinion self-condemning. Moore says the deregulation is the problem. What he neglects to tell you is which regulation was taken off the shelf. What regulation and its lack of enforcement led to this catastrophe in the Gulf of Mexico? Without knowing that you could just as easily argue that it was existing regulation that gave BP an incentive to not care about what damage it would cause such as the current accident.

Moore says deregulation is the problem, until he tells me which one, I remain unconvinced.